Bloomberg forecast of battery production

Here to the Bloomberg article. What would it be like to continue this prognosis until 2021 in the distant future by 2030 and a few years later?






The core statements of the Bloomberg analysis: The worldwide production capacity increases from 2017 103 GWh to 2021 273 GWh. The share of China in world production will increase from 55% to 65%. Without the gigafactory of Tesla Motors, the US would be in the de-industrialized zone. This forecast shows impressively what it means when a government acts like the management of a holding company. China first, we build the most important future industries in our country. For the next 4 years, it is 27.6% growth per year. A continuation of this growth means:
  • 2022:   348 GWh
  • 2023:   444 GWh
  • 2024:   567 GWh
  • 2025:   724 GWh
  • 2026:   923 GWh
  • 2027: 1178 GWh
  • 2028: 1503 GWh
  • 2029: 1918 GWh
  • 2030: 2447 GWh
  • 2031: 3122 GWh
  • 2032: 3984 GWh
  • 2033: 5083 GWh
  • 2034: 6486 GWh
  • 2035: 8276 GWh
How many cars can this provide with batteries? Today, a small car like the Renault Zoe is equipped with 41 kWh. But there will also be low-cost cars for developing countries, something like the Citroen 2 CV, in whose booklet was "Bring a farmer with 2 sack potato to the market". On the other hand, it is to be expected that in the upper class 500 km range is required. 500 km range with the 2 tons caravan at the hook is understood. My estimate would be 48 kWh average per car, per 64 kWh produced batteries come 48 kWh in a car and 16 kWh stationary use and diverse small devices like smartphone and notebook. In 2030, world production would be sufficient for 38 million cars. Only in 2035 is it enough for 129 million cars.

  Growth of the photovoltaic industry from 2005 to 2016
The photovoltaic industry has grown from 1.4 GW to 75 GW during these 11 years. In growth there is only a dip in 2012 to 2014, when the German government has destroyed the German photovoltaic industry in immeasurable stupidity. Nevertheless, 43.6% annual growth. Out of 273 GWh production in 2021, but this time with 43.6% annual growth:

  • 2022:     392 GWh
  • 2023:     563 GWh
  • 2024:     809 GWh
  • 2025:   1161 GWh
  • 2026:   1667 GWh
  • 2027:   2395 GWh
  • 2028:   3439 GWh
  • 2029:   4938 GWh
  • 2030:   7092 GWh
  • 2031: 10184 GWh hier könnte eine Verlangsamung durch Marktsättigung beginnen
  • 2032: 14625 GWh in dem Bereich wird die Marktsättigung vermutet
2030, batteries are already available for 111 million cars. However, as the world market for cars is growing, 10 to 30 million would still be produced with an internal combustion engine. For television, in the transition phase to the flat screen, the production facilities for picture tubes were sold to low-cost countries, where a few years of tube televisions were produced, until flat screens became so cheap that it was no longer worth it.


 


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