Lithium battery production
Clarification of PEGE about the production of lithium batteries. Reply to a study of Roland Berger from February 2010. Short told: Drastic under capacity.
Regretfully is on the web site of Roland Berger no declaration in kWh storage capacity to find. Only nebular "EV-equivalents. At cars could be a "tank equivalent" between 23 and 90 litre. At known electric cars are 12 to 60 kWh built in. So we have to make an assumption, Roland Berger could mean 30 kWh battery with 1 EV-equivalent.
In the prognosis of Roland Berger is written 2,6 million EV-equivalents production capacity 2015, this would be 78 GWh batteries. What is possible to do with 78 GWh battery production, when the next oil crisis hit hard? In this case, we have to reduce crude oil consumption to hamper the price from going up like a rocket.
The greatest reduction of oil consumption per kWh lithium batteries have scooters in development countries. There is often the scooter the only vehicle of a family and is used in average 10,000 km a year. 4 times more than a scooter driver in Germany. 2kWh battery for an electric scooter can save there 300 litre gasoline per year. 150 litre per year and kWh battery capacity.
Replacing a small car with Diesel engine, mostly city traffic, 12000 km, 5 litre/100km requires about 15 kWh battery to replace 600 litre Diesel. That's far worse, only 40 litres per year and kWh battery.
As a first measurement proposed PEGE 2008 to replace each year 50 million electric scooters in development countries by electric scooters and photovoltaic. 2 kWh per electric scooter, at 25% of the scooters 4 kWh buffer battery for an immobile photovoltaic system. Makes 150 GWh battery capacity per year.
You see how ridiculous 78 GWh battery production are in view of global problems. Far more ridiculous is to say this would be an overcapacity.