At the yearly production in 2007 with 25 million electric scooters, this is as much lead as for 37,5 million cars. The analyst:
From German translated citation: An important reason for the raise of the lead price since begining is the scarceness of the Chinese exports. Between December 2006 and September 2007, the netto exports from China decreased from 53 thousand tons to 5 thousand tons, a 90% reduction.
But why exports China less lead? Here the analyst looks over and pretends not to hear 60 million electric scooters. Further means the analyst:
From German translated citation: Substitution is nearly not possible
My comment: At me was the substitution of lead very successful. I went 1994 to 1998 around with a 2.5 kg sealed lead acid battery to supply cell phone and notebook. This is now all with lithium batteries. I will be happy, when my next testing vehicle has also lithium instead of lead batteries.
250% more lithium than lead
The worldwide resources of lithium are 14 Million tons. At lead 1,5 billion tons. Mere there are for 1 kWh battery capacity only 40 g lithium (Lithium Metall Phosphat technology) but 15 kg lead necessary. Seen in such a way, 1,5 billion tons lead delivers only as much battery capacity as 4 million tons lithium.